反思对中国外汇储备问题的讨论管涛
经历了近年来外汇储备急涨急跌的波动后，我们有机会反思和检讨前期关于中国外汇储备问题的诸多讨论。主要结论是：中国外汇储备充裕，确实有助于抵御跨境资本流动冲击风险，为汇率改革和调整争取了时间；保储备不是保规模而是保信心，它与保汇率不是二选一的选择题，而是一个硬币的两面；束缚货币政策的不是央行是否持有外汇储备，而是汇率政策操作；本币对外贬值有助于减少央行外汇储备持有的汇兑损失，但这是一种短视而危险的做法，因为央行持有外汇储备要算大账，而不能只算小账。
关键词：外汇储备适度规模金融安全跨境资本流动冲击
Review of Discussions About China’s ForeignExchange Reserves
Guan Tao
After witnessing the drastic fluctuationsof foreign exchange reserves in recent years, we have reviewed the previousdiscussions about China’s foreign exchange reserves. Our main conclusions areas follows: China’s abundant foreign exchange reserves indeed help fend offcross-border capital flow shocks and bought time for exchange rate reforms andadjustments. The aim of defending the reserves is not to keep a certain scale,but to protect market confidence. Defending the reserves is not an alternativefor defending the renminbi’s exchange rate; they are actually two sides of onecoin. It is not whether the central bank keeps foreign reserves, but how theexchange rate policy is carried out, that constrains the monetary policy.
It’s short-sighted and dangerous to devaluethe renminbi with a view to reducing exchange losses of foreign reserves heldby the central bank.
医疗价格形成机制和医疗保险支付方式的历史演变——国际比较及对中国的启示
朱恒鹏彭晓博
近年来，伴随着医疗费用的快速上涨，中国多地的医疗保险基金陷入入不敷出困境。在财政收入增速下降的经济新常态下，“开源”难度较大，“节流”不失为更佳选择。如何更有效率的“节流”，是当前学术界和政策制定者关注的焦点问题之一。从历史演进视角认真梳理国际上医疗保险支付方式的发展历程，是完成这一任务的必不可少一环。本文择要阐述了医疗服务价格形成机制的演变过程，重点讨论了医疗保险制度引入后医疗服务供方、需方和医疗保险三方互动确定和调整医保支付方式的过程。阐明医疗保险制度下的医保支付机制即为医疗服务价格形成机制，这一机制是引导医疗资源配置和医患双方诊疗行为的关键。同时，通过国际经验比较，阐述了这一机制有效发挥作用所需的基础性制度安排。
关键词：医疗保险医疗服务价格支付机制
Evolution of the Provider-Payment Systemand Healthcare Pricing: International Comparison and Lessons forChina
Zhu Hengpeng and Peng Xiaobo
Many local healthcare funds have been indebt recently as medical expenditures increase rapidly. Given the new economicnormal state, in which economic growth slows and financial revenues decline, itis better for China to improve management of existing resources than seeking toexpand sources of incomes. Therefore, how to raise the distribution efficiencyof the country’s limited medical resources has become a focus of discussion byChinese scholars and policymakers. To that end, it is indispensible to firstexamine the evolution of healthcare payment methods in other countries. Thisarticle summarizes the evolution of the formation mechanism of healthcareservice prices and mainly discusses how the healthcare payment methods aredetermined and adjusted by medical service providers, patients, and insurancecompanies after the introduction of the healthcare system. The article findsthat under the healthcare system, the health service payment mechanism, or thehealthcare payment mechanism, plays a key role in guiding healthcare resourcedistribution and behavior of medical service providers and patients. Meanwhile,through international comparison, the article also discusses the fundamentalsystematic arrangements that are needed to bring out the role of such ahealthcare payment mechanism.
全球治理的新动态：国际生产体系扩张对全球微观治理框架的影响
[美]卡尔·萨旺
宏观自由化和在国家层面制定国际经济交易规则所取得的进步已将关注点转向新的前沿领域，即为全球化经济中的企业经营行为建立微观管制框架，以及相应的管制架构和实施路径。这些由国别政府部门签署的规则会成为全球化经济中企业国际经营的全球性治理机制。当前的临时性和市场驱动的规则制定过程将会被改造得更有效率，能够更充分地实现公共和私人利益之间的平衡。因此，为全球化经济中的企业国际经营建立国际性的微观管制框架将成为国际商务外交领域新的前沿课题。
关键词：全球化跨国企业全球治理企业管制
The Next Step in Governance: The Need forGlobal Micro-Regulatory Frameworks in the Context of Expanding InternationalProduction
Karl P. Sauvant
As explicit barriers to internationaltrade, investment, technology, and financial flows have been reducedconsiderably, “macro-liberalization” of international economic transactions haslargely run its course. Attention needs to shift from international rules forgovernments to international rules dealing with the various aspects of theinternational operations of firms (so-called “micro-issues”). Suchinternational rules for the principal actors in international production andmarkets would complement (or replace) the unilateral rules at the nationallevel, hence provide global micro governance for global production and trade.This article exemplifies for a number of areas the state and nature of thisrule-making for micro-issues and suggests a way forward. It concludes thatdeveloping international micro-regulatory frameworks of rules for internationaloperations of firms in the globalizing economy should be new frontier ofinternational commercial diplomacy.
中国跨越潜在“中等收入陷阱”的新增长战略：从追赶导向到竞争导向
黄先海宋学印
驱动经济增长的根本动力在于技术进步，跌入“中等收入陷阱”的深层机制是在国家技术差距基本面发生阶段性变化后，驱动经济增长的动力未能适时转换而陷入“技术追赶陷阱”。对于技术差距已处于准技术前沿阶段的发展中经济体，应加快由追赶导向型转为竞争导向型的新增长战略，即通过扩大市场和要素竞争、构建阶梯递强的知识产权保护制度、由引进资本到引进竞争的外资利用环境，以及实施竞争兼容型的创新补贴政策等，支撑较快的技术进步率及经济增长率，从而跨越“陷阱”，继续向国际前沿经济体逼近。
关键词：中等收入陷阱市场竞争技术进步增长收敛
China’s New Growth Strategy for Overcomingthe Potential "Middle-Income Trap"
Huang Xianhai and Song Xueyin
The fundamental driving force of economicgrowth lies in technological advancement. Why does a country fall into the"middle-income trap"? The deep-rooted cause is that while itstechnological fundamentals have significantly improved, it has failed toupgrade its economic growth drivers and therefore falls into the"technological chasing trap". For developing economies who lag behindthe developed economies only in frontier technologies, they should adopt acompetition-oriented strategy instead of the traditional chasing-orientedstrategy; in other words, they should expand competition in product and factormarket, build a multi-layer intellectual property protection system, attractmore foreign companies to increase competition, and adopt an innovation subsidypolicy so as to bolster fast technological advancement and economic growth toovercome the middle-income trap and catch up with the developed economies.
如何才能跨越经济增长的陷阱华民
本文从国别对比的角度出发，分析了经济增长中面临的三种增长陷阱（马尔萨斯陷阱、中等收入陷阱和代际贫困陷阱）的成因、后果以及各国的应对措施。在总结国际经验的基础上，探讨了中国如何顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径选择。只有“制度红利”、“土地红利”和“人口红利”得到充分的释放，中国才能顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”，早日成为一个高收入发达国家。
关键词：经济增长陷阱国别经验中国应对措施
How Can China Overcome the Economic GrowthTrap?
Hua Min
From the perspective of country comparison,this article analyzes the causes, consequences and countermeasures of threeeconomic growth traps (Malthusian trap, middle-income trap andinter-generational poverty trap). On the basis of summing up internationalexperiences, the article explores how China can smoothly overcome themiddle-income trap. It argues that only when it conducts institutional reformand land ownership reform and makes full use of its demographic advantage canChina smoothly overcome the middle-income trap and become a high-incomedeveloped country.
中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的经济理论及战略
姚树洁
改革开放以来，中国经过近40年连续不间断高速经济增长，从一个非常落后的农业大国变成一个欣欣向荣的工业大国，成就世界经济发展史上伟大的奇迹。然而，在人均GDP迈入中高收入阶段以后，如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”却是一个理论和实践的重大命题，不仅要学习其他国家发展经验，更要发挥国家自然地理优势及政治人文体制优势，特别是40年改革开放积累起来的经济实力和国家能力。党的十九大没有提及跨越“中等收入陷阱”, 而是提出在2020年决胜全面建成小康社会以后, 再用两个15年时间，分阶段全面建成社会主义现代化强国。在这个新时代，中国不仅要跨越“中等收入陷阱”，还要保持几十年经济可持续健康发展，实现中华民族伟大复兴的“中国梦”。本文回顾过去40年发展历程，指出中国未来经济社会发展的困难及挑战，然后提出“内生增长、马阵跨阱、板链拉动”新时代经济发展理论及战略路径，为中国经济社会实现跨越“中等收入陷阱”, 迈入发达国家行列，提供理论支撑和战略实施办法。
关键词：经济增长地区差距基础设施国际投资贸易金融体制改革
Theory and Strategy of China Overcoming theMiddle Income Trap
Yao Shujie
Since it initiated the reform and openingup drive in late 1970s, China has experienced nearly forty years of unbrokenhigh economic growth. It has been transformed from a poor and backward economyinto a prosperous and dynamic industrialized nation, constituting a greatmiracle in the world economic development history. However, when per capitaincome reaches the middle-income level, how to overcome the so-called middleincome trap has become an important theoretical and practical challenge forChina. To handle the challenge, China needs to learn from the experiences ofother countries, and also exploit its unique advantages in natural resources,political system, culture and history, particularly its own economic and othercapacities that it has accumulated over the last four decades of economicreform and opening up. In the 19th National Congress of the Chinese CommunistParty (CPC), Xi Jinping, general secretary of CPC Central Committee, did noteven mention the challenge of middle income trap; instead, he suggested thatafter successfully building an all-round well-off society in 2020, China wouldspend 30 years to pursue a two-stage development (each stage taking 15 years)in an attempt to achieve modernization by 2050. In the new era, China will notonly try to overcome the middle income trap, but also maintain a long period ofstable and healthy social and economic development to realize the Chinese dreamof national rejuvenation. This article reviews the development history of theChinese economy in the past forty years and discusses the challenges andconstraints that China faces today. It then provides policy suggestions forChina to overcome the middle income trap and become a high-income economy.
中国对“一带一路”建设金融支持的特征、挑战与对策
宋爽王永中
“一带一路”倡议提出以来，中国通过银行贷款、投资基金和债券市场等途径为沿线国家提供了规模可观的金融支持，但面临着独自承担大量融资压力和风险、民营资本参与度不高、资本市场未能发挥有效作用、区域和行业分布不平衡等挑战。为稳定有序推进“一带一路”建设，中国应尽快主导建立“一带一路”金融合作框架体系，并以加强境内外资本合作、拓展公私合营机制、强化资本市场联通和建设金融服务体系为重点任务。
关键词：“一带一路”建设金融合作开发性金融丝路基金公私合营
China’s Financial Support for the Belt andRoad Initiative: Characteristics,
Challenges and Policy Implications
Song Shuang and Wang Yongzhong
Since the Belt and Road Initiative wasraised in 2013, China has provided considerable financial support for countriesalong the Belt and Road routes through State-owned banks, investment funds andbond markets. Meanwhile, it has faced increasing challenges, including greatfinancing pressure and risk-taking, low participation of private capital,underdeveloped capital market, and imbalanced regional and industrialdistribution. To smoothly implement the Belt and Road Initiative, China shouldlead relevant countries to build a financial cooperation framework, andpriorities should be put on strengthening capital cooperation between domesticand overseas investors, enhancing public-private partnerships, improvingcapital market connection, and establishing a financial service system.
不良资产处置与不良资产证券化：国际经验及中国前景
高蓓张明
中国经济增速趋势性下降、企业部门去杠杆及房地产市场下行将造成银行体系不良贷款飙升。考虑债务产生背景、银行经营环境以及政府债务负担等因素，当前不良资产处置方式无法重复历史老路，依靠市场力量处置不良资产是必然选择。历史上很多国家在依靠市场力量处置不良资产时，资产证券化都在其中扮演着重要角色。目前中国发展不良资产证券化的时机已经成熟，市场发展潜力巨大。未来随着各项制度的完善，不良资产证券化必将迎来快速发展阶段。
关键词：不良资产处置不良资产证券化银行体系不良贷款
Disposal and Securitization ofNon-performing Assets: International
Experiences and Prospects in China
Gao Bei and Zhang Ming
China’s economic growth has slowed, whichwill not be reversed in the short term; its corporate sector has started to cutleverages; and its real estate market is cooling. They will combine to lead tosurging non-performing loans in the banking system. Considering the backgroundof the accumulation of non-performing loans, the banks’ operating environment,as well as the government's debt burden, China cannot repeat its old practiceof non-performing asset disposal. China has had no other choices but relying onmarket forces to handle its non-performing assets. From a historicalperspective, asset securitization has played an important role in all countriesrelying on market forces to handle non-performing assets. In China, it hasbecome appropriate to develop non-performing asset securitization. In thefuture, as relevant systems improve, China is set to witness the rapiddevelopment of non-performing asset securitization.
“制度质量”会影响地区创新能力吗？——以台湾地区为例
李应博殷存毅
制度视角下地区创新能力演化是一个复杂多维构面。本文基于制度和制度质量影响创新能力的已有文献研究，分析了在当前全球产业创新变革背景下，台湾地区近年来的创新制度安排以及对创新能力的影响和问题。采用《全球竞争力报告》中的相关数据，分析得出台湾地区长期创新能力与制度质量具有显著相关性。在此基础上讨论了关键影响因素，进而讨论了未来台湾在创新能力提升过程中可能采取的制度措施及重点方向。
关键词：制度质量地区创新能力创新能力提升
Institutional Quality and RegionalInnovation Capability: Taiwan’s Case
Li Yingbo and Yin Cunyi
The evolution of regional innovationcapability, seen from the institutional perspective, is a complexmulti-dimensional process. Based on existing literatures of the effect ofinstitution and institutional quality on innovation capacity, this articlediscusses Taiwan’s institutional arrangements and its influence on itsinnovation capability against the backdrop of global industrial innovation andevolution. Based on the GCI’s data, the article finds that there is a positivecorrelation between Taiwan’s institutional quality and its long-term innovationcapability. It then identifies key institutional factors that influenceTaiwan’s innovation capability, before providing some suggestions on how Taiwancan take measures to improve its innovation capability.
《国际经济评论》2017年第4期
《国际经济评论》2017年第3期
