编者按：本文是奔驰母公司戴勒姆集团总经理的一个采访。在这个采访中，这位总经理坦言奔驰公司的竞争对手已经不再是其他的汽车公司，而是特斯拉，谷歌，苹果以及亚马逊这些高科技公司！不仅如此，这位总经理还预言了3D打印，人工智能等技术在未来10年将会改变大多数人的生活状态！
In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are……
在最近一次对戴姆勒公司（梅赛德斯·奔驰）MD的采访中，这位总经理坦言他们的竞争对手已经不再是其他汽车公司，而是特斯拉（显而易见）、谷歌、苹果，亚马逊......
There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!
生活中总是有这么三个不变的恒量：死亡，纳税和改变！
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world ；Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
大部分传统行业在未来5到10年会受到软件的冲击: 优步（Uber）只是一个软件工具，它没有汽车，却是现在世界上最大的出租车公司；Airbnb也只是一个软件工具，它没有房产，却是现在世界上最大的酒店公司。
Artificial Intelligence（人工智能）:
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
计算机对这个世界的理解正以指数级的速度暴风成长。就在今年，计算机打败了世界上最好的围棋选手，比人们预期的要提早了10年。
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
在美国，年轻的律师已无事可做。因为有了IBM的智能系统Watson，人们可以在几秒之内从中获得法律建议（目前多数为基本内容），而且与人类70%的正确率相比，Watson的正确率要高达90%。
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
所以如果您在学法律，赶紧停下来吧。未来律师的数量将会减少90%，只有法律专家才能生存下来。
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
除此之外，Watson还能帮助护士诊断癌症，准确率是护士单独诊断时的4倍。脸书（Facebook）的模式识别软件“识人”比人类更胜一筹。等到了2030年，计算机会变得比人类更聪明。
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
现在已经有一款叫“Moodies”的应用软件通过声音分辨人类的心情，等到2020年，还会有软件通过面部表情来分析你是否在撒谎。想象一下政客辩论，屏幕上显示着他们什么时候在讲真话，什么时候在编假话。
Autonomous cars（自动驾驶）:
In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.
第一辆自动驾驶汽车将于2018年问世。到2020年左右，整个汽车工业将开始瓦解，你不必买车，只消用手机打通电话，自动驾驶汽车便会出现在你的眼前，然后把你载去目的地。你可以在车上做别的事情，也不用泊车，只需要付个车费。我们的孩子不用再考驾照，也永远不用买车。
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
整个城市会因此而改变。因为所需的汽车数量下降90%至95%，停车场完全可以被改造成一个个公园。目前，全世界每年死于交通事故的人数是120万，每6万英里（10万公里）就会出现一起交通事故，而有了自动驾驶汽车后，这个比率会下降为每6百万英里（1千万公里）一起交通事故，这意味着每年有1百万人幸免于难。
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
大多数汽车公司或许会濒临破产。传统的汽车公司可以通过“进化”来制造出更好的车，而科技公司（特斯拉、苹果和谷歌）则通过”革命化”，为汽车轮胎安装计算机。
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
到那时，大众和奥迪的汽车工程师恐怕会完全臣服于被特斯拉支配的恐惧中。
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
保险公司也会身陷囹圄，因为没了交通事故，保险费自然会便宜百倍，汽车保险也终将消失。
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
房地产会因此得到改变，因为如果你可以在通勤的时候办公，那么你就可以搬去更远，环境也更好的社区。
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
电动汽车在2020年会成为市场主流。城市变得不再喧闹，因为所有汽车都依靠电力行驶。未来，电力会变得难以言喻的便宜与清洁，因为太阳能发电以指数曲线增长已逾30年，它蓬勃的发展力已然展现在我们面前。
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
去年，太阳能在世界范围内的安装数量已经超过了矿物燃料装置，尽管能源公司为躲避竞争，使出浑身解数限制家用太阳能进入电网，但这终究不会长久，科技自有办法应对能源公司的招数。
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
有了便宜的电力就会有便宜又充足的水。许多地方稀缺的其实并不是水，而是饮水资源，通过海水脱盐的方式每立方米只需消耗2千瓦·时。想象人人都可以获得清洁的饮用水，而且几乎不用花钱，世界会是怎样一番模样。
Health（健康）:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
Tricorder X的奖项会在今年公布，届时会有公司制造出一种医疗仪器（Tricorder，根据《星际迷航》中的“三录仪”命名）。这种仪器与手机共同使用，可以扫描视网膜，采集血样和以及呼气检测。
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
通过分析54项生物标记，三录仪几乎可以检测出任何疾病。它的价格并不高昂，所以不出几年，这个星球上的每个人都有渠道获得这种世界级的，几乎免费的医疗分析。再见了，诊所和医院。
3D printing（3D打印）:
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
在未来十年，最便宜的3D打印机会从18，000美元跌到400美元，与此同时，它的速度还会提高100倍。到那时，所有的大型鞋厂都会使用3D技术打印鞋子。
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
在遥远的航空飞船上的飞行器零件已经通过3D技术打印了出来，空间站也已经安装了3D打印机，消除了以往大量储备备用零件的需求。
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
到今年年末，新出的智能手机可能会包含3D扫描技术。你可以通过它来扫描双脚，然后在家打印出一双最合脚的鞋子。中国已经运用3D打印技术建造出了六层公寓楼。到了2027年，世界上10%的物品都将通过3D打印制造出来。
Business opportunities（商业机会）:
If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
在考虑进入一个专营市场之前，首先问问自己：“到了将来这个市场还会存在吗？”如果答案是肯定的，再问问自己怎样做才能尽快实现。
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
如果它与手机不能共同作用，那么趁早打消这个主意。任何在20世纪获得成功的创意换到21世纪都是注定要失败的。
Work（工作）:
70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
20年以后，70%到80%的工作都会消失。未来会产生大量新的职业，只是不确定短时间内是否有足够多新的工作岗位。
Agriculture（农业）:
There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
未来会出现100美元的农业用机器人。第三世界的农民无需再整日面朝黄土背朝天，而是会翻身成为农田经理。
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
气雾栽培所需用水会大大减少。培养皿制造的牛肉现在已经在市场上供应了，等到2018年，它的价格会比真正的牛肉还便宜。目前，30%的农场面积都被奶牛养殖占据，想象一下如果我们不再需要那么多空间会怎样。还有一些创新企业很快会把昆虫蛋白质带入市场，因为昆虫的蛋白含量比肉类要高。当然，食品的包装上会贴上“蛋白替代食品”，因为绝大多数人还是会拒吃昆虫的。
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
比特币甚至可能成为默认的储备货币——是世界的！
Longevity（寿命）:
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
人类的平均寿命目前每年延长3个月。四年前，人类的寿命为79岁，现在则为80岁。因为增长率本身也在上涨，等到2036年，人类的平均寿命会每年增加一岁多。人人寿享遐龄，可能远远超过100岁。
Education（教育）:
The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
在非洲和亚洲，最便宜的智能手机只要10美元。到了2020年，70%的人类都会拥有一台智能机。这就意味着，每个人都有机会获得世界级水平的教育。
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.
小孩可以从可汗学院那里学习到每个第一世界国家的孩子所必修的知识。现在可汗学院已经发行了印尼语的软件，阿拉伯语和中文版本也会在今夏发行。可以预见这里内含的潜能是巨大的，如果英文学习软件免费提供，那么非洲和世界上其它地区的人们都可以学习讲流利的英文，而这一切可能在半年内实现。
【作者简介】
52赫兹鲸鱼 | 格隆汇·专栏作者
海龟行研一枚，从事美股研究
专注于互联网、科技领域
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