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市场 | 全球经济趋势及其对黄金的影响
Global economic trends and their impact on gold
招聘 | 中国大陆雇主聘用人才仍谨慎
Mainland China’s employers cautious on new hiring
航空 | 阿提哈德“航空极客”挑战环球飞行世界纪录
Etihad Airways ‘Aviation Geek’ Embarks On Round The World Record Attempt
庆典 | 蒂森克虏伯庆祝自动扶梯诞生125周年
thyssenkrupp celebrates the 125-year anniversary of the escalator
请看详细报道↓↓↓
全球经济趋势及其对黄金的影响
Global economic trends and their impact on gold
世界黄金协会近日发布全球黄金市场前瞻性报告：《全球经济趋势及其对黄金的影响》。
Recently, World Gold Council released a global gold market outlook report - Outlook 2018: Global economic trends and their impact on gold.
该报告归纳了支撑2017年金价涨幅的四个因素，展望了2018年黄金市场，预计了会驱动全球金融市场、影响黄金表现的四个关键主题。
The report not only shows four factors supported 2017’s price gains but also explores four key market trends and their implications for gold.
1.全球经济同步增长的一年金融危机结束十年后，世界经济正在回归正轨。2017 年全球经济加速增长，市场预计这种趋势将在2018年继续。
1.Ten years after the financial crisis the world is returning to economic normality. Global growth increased in 2017 and the market expects the trend to continue in 2018.
我们预计中国经济——中国是全球最大的黄金市场——将继续增长，但增长性质将发生变化：
We expect that China’s economy – home to the world’s largest gold market – will continue to grow, but the nature of growth is changing:
人们期待已久的从投资驱动型增长向消费驱动型增长模式的转变正在发生。
its long-awaited transition from investment-driven growth to a consumption-led model is underway.
这可能会影响经济增速，但即使中国经济增速变慢，它却展示了一种更为平衡的增长模式，即通过中国“一带一路”倡议进一步推动全球一体化，继而支持可持续增长。
This could affect the economic growth rate, but even if the Chinese economy grows at a slower rate than in the past, we see a more balanced model – aided by further global integration through its One Belt One Road initiative – as supporting a sustainable growth trajectory.
2.不断收缩的资产负债表，不断上涨的利率持续不断的全球经济扩张可能导致货币政策收紧。
2.Continued global economic expansion will likely result in tighter monetary policy.
在寻求缩减其庞大的资产负债表的过程中，美联储将起到带头作用——美联储计划每个月让 500 亿美元的国债和抵押支持证券到期，
The Fed will take the lead as it seeks to shrink its swollen balance sheet – it plans to let US$50bn of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities mature each month,
预计到 2020 年，其资产负债表将从 2014 年以来的 4.5万亿美元缩减到 2.5 万亿美元左右。预计美联储还将继续加息。
and it is anticipated that by 2020 its balance sheet will decrease to around US$2.5tn, having been at US$4.5tn since 2014. The Fed is also expected to raise rates further.
在我们看来，黄金面临的潜在阻碍可能没有一些人认为的那么大。黄金可以帮助投资者管理金融市场风险。
In our view, the potential headwinds to gold may not be as strong as some think. Gold can help investors manage financial market risks.
我们对不同的美国实际利率环境下黄金表现的分析表明，当实际利率介于 0%-4%之间时，黄金收益率为正值，其波动性和与其他主流金融资产的关联性低于长期均值。
Our analysis of gold’s performance during different US real-rate environments reveals that when real rates are between 0% and 4% gold’s returns are positive, and its volatility and correlation with other mainstream financial assets are below long-run averages.
这些特性会对投资组合的表现产生积极影响。
These attributes can have a positive effect on portfolio performance.
3.有泡沫的资产价格2017 年全球资产价格达到多年高点。美国的标普 500 指数处于史上最高水平，其周期调整市盈率(CAPE)处于 2000 年互联网泡沫峰值以来的最高水平。
3.Asset prices hit multi-year highs around the world in 2017. In the US, the S&P 500 is at an all-time high and its cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio (CAPE) is at its highest level since the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
如果全球金融市场修正，那么投资者可以从黄金投资中受益，因为黄金历来在财务困境时期有助于减少亏损。
Should global financial markets correct, investors could benefit from having an exposure to gold as it has historically reduced losses during periods of financial distress.
4.市场透明度、效率和产品供应 在过去十年里，金融市场变得更透明和高效，新产品向所有规模的投资者扩大了供应渠道。
4.Over the past decade, financial markets have become more transparent and efficient, with new products broadening access to investors of all shapes and sizes.
黄金市场也不例外，透明度在过去几年里大幅提高。全球各地以黄金为依托的投资工具使黄金投资变得更容易、成本更低。
The gold market is no exception and over the past few years it has made great strides in terms of transparency. And gold-backed investment vehicles around the world are making it easier and cheaper to access gold.
我们认为，上述关键趋势的共同影响可能为黄金提供支撑。
We believe that the confluence of the key trends we’ve highlighted for 2018 could be supportive of gold demand.
中国大陆雇主聘用人才仍谨慎
Mainland China’s employers cautious on new hiring
全球招聘专家瀚纳仕今日发布《2018年瀚纳仕亚洲薪酬指南》显示，尽管有63%的中国大陆企业预计在2018年开展更多商业活动，也有49%的中国大陆企业看好2018年的经济发展，但仅有45%的中国大陆企业希望在2018年招聘更多员工。
The 2018 Hays Asia Salary Guide, released today reveals that while 63 per cent of businesses in Mainland China expect an increase in business activity and 49 per cent expect the economy to strengthen in 2018, only 45 per cent expect to increase headcount.
瀚纳仕提出，中国大陆雇主虽然更加看好今年的经济发展及商业环境，但在聘用人才时仍然谨慎。
Employers in Mainland China remain cautious about hiring despite growing optimism towards the economy and the business environment, according to recruiting experts Hays.
《2018年瀚纳仕亚洲薪酬指南》基于对中国大陆、香港、日本、马来西亚和新加坡的3000多位雇主、涉及600万名员工和1,200多个职位进行的调查，为各个行业的薪酬水平和招聘趋势提供了分析与见解。
The 2018 Hays Asia Salary Guide highlights salary and recruiting trends drawn from more than 3,000 employers across Mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore representing six million employees with salary ranges reported for more than 1,200 roles.
瀚纳仕大中华区执行总监兰熙蒙说：“我们的调查结果显示，在中国大陆，大多数雇主对2018年经济的强劲增长和商业活动持乐观态度。
“Our survey findings’ shows the vast majority of employers in Mainland China are optimistic about strong economic growth and business activity in 2018. says Simon Lance, Managing Director for Hays in Greater China.
我们认为，这种积极的观点将最终使得更多的企业愿意通过增加员工人数来利用前景广阔的经济和商业格局。”
We believe this positive sentiment will eventually lead to more businesses increasing their headcount to take advantage of the promising economic and business landscape.”
尽管招聘计划谨慎， 51%的中国大陆雇主计划今年涨薪6%以上，这比亚洲整体水平高出24%。与此同时，有35%的中国大陆雇主计划通过涨薪3%至6%来留住人才。
Despite the soft hiring plans as reported, 51 per cent of employers in Mainland China plan salary increases of more than 6 per cent which is 24 per cent more than the whole of Asia combined. A further 35 per cent plan salary increases of 3-6 per cent as businesses look to retain talent in 2018.
他强调说：“对所有企业而言，招聘和留住有才能的员工始终是公司取得成功的关键。中国大陆雇主认为加薪是使最佳人才继续为其效力的方式之一。
“Recruitment and retention of talented employees remains a key factor in the success of any business, and employers in Mainland China recognise that salary increases are one way to keep their best people on board,” adds Simon.
尽管如此，我们的调查还发现中国大陆雇主和员工的对薪酬的期望存在脱节。
" However, our survey also found that there is a disconnect in salary expectations between employers and employees in Mainland China.
在被调查的应聘者中，希望今年涨薪幅度能超过6%的占85%，而计划涨薪超过6%的雇主只有51%。”
85 per cent of candidates surveyed expect a salary increase of more than 6 per cent this year vs. the 51 per cent of employers who plan to offer the same increase."
报告显示，与去年相比，今年有更多的外籍员工在中国大陆工作。
This year’s report has found that there are more foreign workers employed in Mainland China compared to our previous report.
目前，中国大陆的外籍员工比例达到10%，同比增长了4%。
Currently, foreigners make up 10 per cent of Mainland China’s workforce which is up four per cent.
然而中国大陆在雇佣外籍员工方面仍然落后于亚洲其他地区，与马来西亚一同处于落后位置。
However, the Mainland China still lags behind other Asian regions for employing overseas talent and is joint bottom with Malaysia.
中国大陆愿意到海外工作的员工人数比例从去年的69％下降到61％， 这可能是得益于公众对中国经济发展的信心增强。
The number of employees in Mainland China willing to relocate overseas for work fell to 61 per cent compared with 69 per cent in the previous year.
由于中国企业对内投资力度的加大，有更多的中国本土企业登上世界舞台，国内就业机会增加。
This may be a reflection of the growing public confidence in the Chinese economy, greater opportunities amid the trend towards higher domestic investment by Chinese companies and the emergence of a greater number of world-class local enterprises.
阿提哈德“航空极客”挑战环球飞行世界纪录
Etihad Airways ‘Aviation Geek’ Embarks On Round The World Record Attempt
阿提哈德航空高管Andrew Fisher1月21日凌晨开启终生难遇的一次旅行，他搭乘定期航班，尝试以最少的航段和最短的时间挑战环球飞行的世界纪录。
Senior Etihad Airways executive, Andrew Fisher, embarks on a journey of a lifetime on 21 January when he attempts to break the world record by flying around the globe in the shortest time frame on scheduled flights, and with the fewest number of sectors.
Fisher先生现任阿提哈德航空机队规划副总裁，他希望将当前超过55小时的环球飞行世界纪录缩短三小时，并仅用四个航段就完成本次旅行。
Fisher, who works as the airline’s Vice President Fleet Planning, hopes to shave three hours off the current record of over 55 hours by completing the journey in only four sectors.
他周日凌晨从上海开启本次环球之旅，途中飞经奥克兰、布宜诺斯艾利斯和阿姆斯特丹，最后于1月23日星期二凌晨返回上海。
His flight path begins in the early hours of Sunday morning in Shanghai, taking him to Auckland, Buenos Aires and Amsterdam before returning to the Chinese city in the early hours of Tuesday morning, 23 January.
Andrew在阿布扎比工作，自称“航空极客”，热衷研究航班网络和飞行时刻表；他利用自身工作经验来规划自己的环球之旅，实现20年来一直渴望去尝试的梦想。
A self-proclaimed ‘aviation geek’ with a love of studying airline networks and schedules, Abu Dhabi-based Andrew is well placed to chart his journey and fulfill a dream he has been keen to attempt for over 20 years.
Andrew Fisher表示：“现在该是付诸行动的时候了。规划用了很长时间，根本目的是为了确保时刻、航线和转机尽可能紧凑，把握仅有的短暂时机完成本次旅行。”
“It’s about time the job was done,” he said. “The planning has taken a long time, essentially to ensure the flight timings, routings and transits are kept as tight as possible and there is only a short window of opportunity for this to happen.”
蒂森克虏伯庆祝自动扶梯诞生125周年
thyssenkrupp celebrates the 125-year anniversary of the escalator
曾经，通过“移动的楼梯”向上运送乘客仅仅是人们的梦想。
Imagine a world where dreams of being transported upwards via a moving staircase was simply that, a dream.
125年前，杰西·里诺发明了第一台自动扶梯，并于1892年3月15日获得专利。
Over one hundred and twenty-five years ago, Jesse Reno invented the first working escalator, which was patented on March 15, 1892.
首台自动扶梯当时被称为“倾斜式升降梯”，于1893年1月16日安装在纽约市康尼岛老码头。
The first escalator, then known as an incline elevator, was installed at the Old Iron Pier at Coney Island in New York City on January 16, 1893.
这台自动升降梯的倾斜角度为25度，通过一条传送带运送乘客，运送距离仅为七英尺。
The moving stairway elevated passengers on a conveyor belt at a 25-degree angle and traveled only seven feet.
这台自动扶梯在老码头运行两周之后被迁往布鲁克林大桥。
The escalator ran for two weeks at Old Iron Pier before moving to the Brooklyn Bridge.
据估计，该电梯在这两周期间共运送乘客7.5万人次。而如今，仅美国每年就有超过1000亿人次使用自动扶梯。
It is estimated that it carried 75,000 passengers during its two weeks at the Old Iron Pier. Today, more than 100 billion people in the United States alone use escalators every year.
多年来，蒂森克虏伯一直在不断地完善125年前发明的自动扶梯技术。
The technology that first developed 125 years ago has been perfected over the years and decades by thyssenkrupp.
如今，蒂森克虏伯的解决方案遍布世界各地。如果将蒂森克虏伯安装的所有自动扶梯连接在一起，可以顺利登上一座海拔50万米的高山。
Today, the company’s solutions are installed all around the globe in huge numbers. If all escalators installed by thyssenkrupp were joined together, they would be long enough to scale a mountain with a height of 500 kilometers.
在德国，自1950年开始，自动扶梯才进入批量生产。在此之前，所有扶梯都是在施工现场手工制作完成。
In Germany, escalators have only been manufactured in serial production since 1950. Before then they were built by hand on the construction site.
在汉堡，蒂森克虏伯运营着德国唯一的一家自动扶梯生产工厂。该公司还负责维护欧洲范围内约2.5万部自动扶梯。每位维保技术员每个月需要维护多达40部自动扶梯。
In Hamburg, thyssenkrupp runs Germany’s only factory for escalators. The company also maintains about 25,000 escalators in Europe. A mechanic cares for up to 40 escalators – per month!
蒂森克虏伯电梯解决方案不仅可以运送人员和货物，还创造了大量工作岗位：全球大约有15.5万人在电梯和自动扶梯领域工作。仅德国就有大约1.8万人。
thyssenkrupp Elevator solutions not only move people and goods, but also secure jobs: Today, around 155,000 people are in the elevator and escalator industry worldwide. In Germany alone there are around 18,000.
如今，欧洲已经安装了超过13.6万部自动扶梯，其中德国有3.56万部。
Today, in Europe there are more than 136,000 escalators installed, 35,600 of them in Germany.
自动扶梯的平均使用寿命是30年，之后则需要进行更新改造，但扶梯业的增长势头依然十分强劲，每年的增量达到5,500台。
An average escalator’s lifespan is up to 30 years before it has to be modernized, but there’s still growth ahead - with some additional 5,500 new escalators every year.
自动扶梯诞生125周年是蒂森克虏伯值得庆祝的一个重要时刻：借此机会可以回顾历史，展望未来，进一步推动技术发展，使城市交通变得更加智能。
The escalator’s 125th birthday is a great occasion for thyssenkrupp to celebrate: to look back at history and into the future with its potential technical developments that continue to make urban mobility smarter.
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编辑 / 武亚东
来源 / 经济日报（记者陈颐、朱琳）
