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今天我们推出的是1月8-12日在上海举办的第十八届瑞银大中华研讨会。本次会议以“中国新名片：从世界工厂到创新强国”为主题，来自全球各地2,200多名与会代表共同探讨全球经济复苏的可持续性、地缘政治风险、中国金融去杠杆以及中国向创新强国的转型。瑞银证券研究团队就该研讨会发表研究报告，总结并分享大会的主要观点。请看详细报道↓↓
热议中国与全球宏观环境
Lively discussions on China and the global macro environment
嘉宾们分享了他们对于中国金融去杠杆的理解。一位嘉宾持相对谨慎的观点：他认为许多中国投资者并未充分考虑到与政府后盾的隐性担保相关的风险。
Our speakers shared their understanding of China's deleveraging. One speaker holds a relatively cautious view, as he believes many investors in China have not taken into consideration risks associated with implicit guarantees backed by the Government.
另一位嘉宾认为，2017年是中国商业银行资产质量企稳回升的拐点。
However, another speaker thinks 2017 is an inflection point for asset quality at China's commercial banks.
创新是本次会议的重点
Innovation is a key focus of the conference
一位主旨演讲嘉宾认为，人工智能不同于任何以往通过人脑所产生的技术创新，其主要通过不断试错的方式进行机器学习。
One keynote speaker believes artificial intelligence (AI) is now focusing on machine learning through trial and error, unlike any previous technological innovations, which came into the world by first passing through the human brain.
他提出，尽管人工智能的开发仍然面临一些挑战，但其已可以被投入于部分商业应用。他强调中国在人工智能领域的研发处于领先地位。
This speaker thinks AI is good enough for some commercial applications at the moment, even though some challenges remain, and stresses that China is taking the leading position in this area.
与会专家和投资者们分享了他们在中国创新潮中的所见所闻：
Our panellists, who are professional scientists and investors, shared what they have seen in China's booming innovation:
在政府资金和资源的强力支持下，研究基础设施、研究平台、甚至是先进实验室在过去20年的时间里在国内逐步建立；
Research infrastructure; platforms; and even advanced laboratories set up across the country over the past 20 years, with strong Government support in terms of money and other resources.
部分领先的中国技术公司将其营收的一大部分投入于研发，从而逐步成长为技术创新者并从海外竞争对手中获取全球市场份额。
Some leading Chinese tech companies have invested a large proportion of revenue in R&D, growing into technology-based innovators and gaining global market share from foreign competitors.
行业论坛洞见
Insights from sector panels
一位与会者在消费行业论坛上表示，由于消费者信心逐年提升，尤其是农村消费者信心几近新高，消费升级或将持续。
One of our speakers told the consumer panel that the consumption upgrade is likely to continue on increasing consumer confidence, especially in rural areas.
该演讲者提出，产品创新是消费升级的关键，可以对抗消费品总需求的下滑。
The speaker stated product innovation is the key to a consumption upgrade, allowing resistance to decreases in total demand for consumer goods.
一位嘉宾在房地产行业论坛上表示，发展房地产租赁市场可能对于一线城市的住房供给影响较大，但对全国新建住宅投资总量影响较小。
One speaker argued at the real estate panel that development of the leasing property market may have a great impact on housing supply in tier 1 cities, while its influence on national residential investment may be lower.
新技术与创新产业
New technology is reshaping the industry
创新经济分会场获得了投资者最多的关注，嘉宾分享了对众多新兴行业的新观点，新技术将重塑中国的产业和人们的日常生活。
The innovation track received a lot of attention from investors. Speakers shared their views and forecasts of how new technology will reshape Chinese industry and everyday life.
5G，人工智能和人脸识别技术对于物联网和智能城市而言可能是革命性的。
5G, AI and facial recognition technology could be revolutionary for Internet of Things and smart cities.
中国的机器人产业将受益于中国自动化升级的内在动力，在体量和增速上都将成为全球第一；
China's automation upgrade is spurring growth in the robotics industry, which will become the world's largest in volume and growth rate.
互联网金融面临金融监管加强的挑战。整体而言，嘉宾与投资者对中国的未来创新速度和成果保持乐观。
Internet finance must overcome the challenge of financial supervision to strengthen. Overall, speakers and investors remain optimistic about China's innovation in terms of speed and application.
中国债务问题担忧正在减弱
Concerns about China's debt problem are easing
长期以来，中国的债务问题一直是投资人的最主要担心之一。在瑞银现场调研中，担忧依然存在。
China's debt problem has been a major long-term concern among investors. While a poll taken at the conference showed worries remain.
但大多数投资人认为中国监管者已经采取的行动有助于阻止杠杆率上升，甚至可能下降。
Most respondents believe Chinese regulators have taken action to prevent leverage from rising.
一位与会嘉宾认为，由于中国国内的高储蓄率、资本控制和银行融资，中国不会出现类似于亚洲金融危机的债务危机，
One speaker thought a systemic debt crisis is unlikely to happen in China due to high domestic savings, capital control and financing from banks.
中国经济持续好转，此次与会者人数出现了明显增长，甚至往年较为冷门的能源论坛今年听众远超往年。
Investor sentiment about the Chinese economy has become more positive, underscored by a sharp increase in the number of attendees in the energy forum, which had been less popular in previous years and is a sector closely related to the real economy.
全球基金流向中国/EM将重振
Global fund flow to China/EM could revive
由于2017年MSCI China上涨超过50%，18年A股将加入MSCI指数，投资人对中国股票和债券的兴趣逐步上升。
Due to the strong performance of MSCI China, which rallied +50% in 2017, along with MSCI inclusion of A-shares in 2018, interest in Chinese stocks and bonds could continue rising.
几位机构投资者认为，过去几年由于中国债务上升等原因，国际资本逐步流出中国市场，
Several investors shared their expectations in a forum: in previous years, international funds flew out of the China market because of top-down concerns such as rising leverage.
但受益于技术进步和行业整合的优秀企业仍然贡献了良好收益。
This outflow caused investors to miss some great opportunities among fast-growing companies driven by technological/business model innovation and market consolidation, which generated decent returns.
随着中国和亚洲金融市场透明度上升和监管改善，其较快的经济增长速度在2018年或将吸引更多全球资本流入中国和亚洲。
Along with rising transparency and regulation in China's financial market, funds could continue flowing back to China (and Asia) in 2018, as they present the advantage of higher growth potential.
大盘蓝筹股最受投资者关注
Large-cap blue chips drew most investor interest
鉴于过去一年大盘蓝筹股的强劲表现，本届大中华研讨会中投资者明显对行业内占据领导地位的龙头企业最为关注。
In light of the strong performances of large-cap blue chips last year, investors at the Greater China Conference (GCC) were keen to meet representatives of corporates with leading positions in their industries.
据观察，在前10家最受客户欢迎的企业中，有3家是互联网企业，3家消费企业，2家汽车企业，1家工业企业和1家电信、媒体和科技(TMT）企业。
The 10 most popular companies for clients' one-on-one meetings consisted of three internet companies, three consumer companies, two auto names, an industrial, and a TMT company.
投资者对公司的兴趣基本是均匀的分布在A股、H股和美国存托凭证（ADR）之间。
Investor interest was evenly distributed among A-/H-shares and ADRs.
在前20家最受客户欢迎的企业中，8家是A股，8家H股，3家ADR，1家为非上市企业。
Of the 20 most popular companies 8 are A-shares, 8 H-shares, 3 are ADRs and one is unlisted (NIO).
金融科技、医疗和互联网调研最受欢迎
Fintech, Healthcare and Internet tours were most in demand
如同往年一样，大多数调研行程从研讨会的第三天下午出发。
Post-conference tours traditionally set off on the third day of the GCC.
本届会议总共组织了11个行业调研，覆盖包括上游和下游在内的多个行业，参与的投资者会见了近100家上市和非上市公司。
This year UBS is holding 11 tours covering various upstream and downstream sectors, during which investors will meet around 100 listed and unlisted companies.
在这11个行业调研中，投资者需求最为集中的是金融科技、医疗和互联网，其次是消费、汽车、房地产和高端制造业。
The Fintech, Healthcare and Internet tours were most in demand from investors, followed by consumer, auto, property and high-end manufacturing.
地产开发商对来年展望不一
Mixed outlook from developers
房地产开发商对来年的展望有所不同。
Property developers in general guided for a mixed outlook for the next year.
一些开发商认为，在地产调控的背景下今年销售仍然能延续去年的强劲增长，主要得益于充足的可售资源。
Some expect strong sales growth to continue despite the policy tightening, helped by the abundant saleable resources.
一些开放商则认为销售将会减速。部分预期较为乐观的开发商也表示会继续维持、甚至在2018年加快拿地速度，或旨在争取更多的市场份额。
Others forecast a slowdown in sales growth. Some developers with strong sales guidance indicated they would maintain high growth in, or even accelerate, land acquisition in 2018, potentially to compete for more market share.
瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰指出，在我们的年度展望研究中，我们预计全球经济增长将继续保持在2017年3.8％的高位。
In our Year Ahead research, we estimate that global economic growth should continue at the high rate of 3.8% witnessed in 2017.said UBS Group CEO Sergio P. Ermotti
同时，瑞银预测，2018年中国的GDP增长将从2017年的6.8％温和放缓至6.4％，2019年将放缓至6.3％。但即便如此，中国的增速仍领先世界其他地区。
UBS sees China's GDP growth slowing modestly from 6.8% in 2017 to 6.4% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.Even so, China is still outpacing the rest of the world.
很显然，世界上其他任何一个大型经济体的经济增长都将很难与中国相比拟。
It's clear that no other large economy in the world will post a comparable rate of economic growth.
而且，中国现在十分重视经济增长质量，意味着未来增长的前景将更加可持续。
And China is now focusing on quality of growth, which means future growth prospects will be even more sustainable.
我认为，在全球经济稳定增长、全球收益率温和上升、中国努力遏制系统性风险、港股通南向资金流入强劲以及A股被纳入MSCI的背景下，中国股市目前的估值水平是具有可持续性的。
I think current Chinese equity markets valuations look sustainable given expected stable global growth, moderately rising global yields, China's efforts to contain systemic risks, strong southbound flows, and last but not least, the MSCI A-share inclusion.
纵观中国债券市场，近几年来发展迅速，目前以9万亿美元的规模跃居全球第三大市场。
Looking at the Chinese bond market, this has grown rapidly in recent years and is currently the world's third largest at USD 9 trillion.
我相信未来5年，它的规模还将翻番，并且成为仅次于美国的第二大市场。
Over the next 5 years I believe it will double in size and become the second largest, behind the US.
一言蔽之，我确信，中国将继续保持其在过去10到20年里的强劲上升态势。
To sum it up – it's clear to me that China will continue the strong upward trajectory we have seen over the last 10 to 20 years.
虽然未来的增长道路可能会有更多起伏，但从瑞银的角度，我们看到了四个趋势在推动中国的持续增长方面形成了合力。
And while the road ahead to growth may be a bit bumpier, from a UBS perspective, we see a sweet spot of four trends converging to create momentum.
首先是政府政策的支持。正如我几年前所说，拥有一个稳定一贯的政府是中国成功的关键。我们只需要从2025年规划蓝图便可了解。
First, supportive government policy.As I said a couple of years ago, having a stable and consistent government has been key for the success of the country. You only have to look at the 2025 roadmap to see that.
中国的潜力显而易见，而中国已经为接下来的“高质量发展”阶段确定了道路，来实现潜在的发展。
To realize the potential that is obviously here, the path has been set for the next phase of ‘high-quality development’.
其次是中国形成了有利的市场生态系统。中国国内的消费群体不断壮大，富裕程度越来越高，销售市场规模也随之扩大。
Secondly, a supportive market ecosystem. With a growing and increasingly wealthy domestic consumer base to sell to and learn from.
第三是教育。我认为，关于中国人口状况，有一点未得到充分认识。那就是，尽管中国的人口正在老龄化，但是新劳动力的受教育程度有了很大的提高，它将为中国未来十年的发展带来“工程师红利”。
Thirdly, education. I think one thing not well appreciated about China’s demographics is that while the population is ageing, the new workforce is far better educated, which will provide what we might term an ‘engineer dividend’ for the next decade.
中国每年有近300万名理工科毕业生，是美国的五倍。
China creates nearly 3 million science and engineering graduates a year, five times more than the US.
最后，中国在过去的几年里一直受益于高储蓄率。
Finally, China’s national savings have served her well over the last few years.
随着金融市场的发展，更多的资本在寻找机会进入风险投资和其他早期资本投资领域。
As financial markets develop, more of this capital is finding its way into venture capital and other types of early funding.
我们估计，仅仅发生在过去两年的风险投资，其规模就达到1000亿美元左右。
We estimate around $100 billion of venture capital over the last two years alone.
金融部门改革将继续有序推进。我们特别期待外资公司可以获得更多机会参与中国市场。
There will be continued measured reform in the financial sector. We particularly welcome the opportunity for increased participation by foreign firms.
除了金融领域，国企改革也将继续推进，政府也将继续着力培育具有全球竞争力的世界一流企业。
Beyond the financial sector, we will also see continued reform of the State-Owned Enterprises and a focus on world-class, globally competitive firms.
“一带一路”倡议将继续连通世界。中国将在贸易和国际关系方面双双受益。
The Belt and Road Initiative will continue to build connectivity and relations with the rest of the world. It will pay dividends in both trade and relationships.
敬请为本期双语新闻中您最关注的消息点赞，以便今后提供您最关注的新闻。
Please vote for the report you like the most. We will provide the news your care the most.
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编辑 / 王玥
来源 / 经济日报记者陈颐、朱琳
