China & World Economy / 1–3, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
Guest Editor’s Words
Shouying Liu
China & World Economy / 4–17, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
Reassessing the Lewis Turning Point in China:
Evidence from 70,000 Rural Households
Yuan Zhang, Ting Shao, Qi Dong
Abstract
There is no convincing evidence to prove that China’s Lewis turning point (LTP) arrived in 2004–2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 70,000 rural households and following the method proposed by Minami (1968) to identify the Lewis turning point in Japan, the present study reassessed the reaching of the LTP in China and found that China’s economy reached the LTP around 2010. From a regional perspective, China’s eastern region reached the LTP in 2010 and its central and western regions are now approaching the turning point. After arriving at the LTP, China’s rural economy will face three key tasks: safeguarding grain security, promoting economic restructuring and realizing agricultural modernization. To cope with the shortage of human capital in agriculture production and the challenge of the tight balance between grain supply and demand, the Chinese Government should improve the human capital training system, accelerate agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain security.
China & World Economy / 18–41, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
New Trends in Internal Migration in China:
Profiles of the New-generation Migrants
Liqiu Zhao, Shouying Liu, Wei Zhang
Abstract
Three decades since the first wave of rural–urban migration, the new generation of migrant workers has become the main force of internal migration in China. The present paper comprehensively explores the profiles of the new generation of migrant workers in urban China. We find that the “new generation” migrants are more educated and skilled, and are likely to work in manufacturing and service industries than in the construction industry. Moreover, they tend to allocate more time to non-farm activities and have more months away from home per year in urban areas. In contrast to their predecessors, they tend to migrate to urban areas with their spouses, consume more in urban areas and send less money back home. Our findings suggest that the differences in features between the new generation of rural migrants and urban residents have become smaller and the integration of rural migrants into urban China has taken place gradually.
China & World Economy / 42–65, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
Historical Transformation of China’s Agriculture:
Productivity Changes and Other Key Features
Shouying Liu, Ruimin Wang, Guang Shi
Abstract
According to an analysis of sampled data from the National Bureau of Statistics for 70,000 peasant households, agricultural labor productivity has been increasing at a faster rate than land productivity since 2003. Labor productivity has, in fact, experienced long-term stagnation. The data also reveals the heterogenization of small farmers, farm machinery replacing manual labor as an agricultural input, the expansion of the scale of land management, the development of the rural land leasing market and the diversification of the agricultural management entities. Review of the historical transformation of agriculture helps to recognize the declining importance of agricultural land, the direction of agricultural technological changes, the path and the disposition of the changes to the agricultural system, and the adjustment of China’s rural policies.
China & World Economy / 66–85, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
Rural Labor Migration and Households’ Land Rental
Behavior: Evidence from China
Xianqing Ji, Zhonghao Qian, Linxiu Zhang, Tonglong Zhang
Abstract
There has been growing debate about whether the changing demographic composition due to rural labor migration could potentially threaten China’s agricultural productivity. The Chinese Government is promoting the “three rights separation system” to consolidate agricultural land through the land rental market with the explicit intention of fostering new agricultural management subjects and improving agricultural productivity. The present paper estimates the effect of rural labor migration on households’ participation in land renting in and renting out activities based on a unique dataset from three rounds of nationally representative surveys. Our results indicate that rural labor migration has a significant negative effect on households renting in land and has a positive effect on households renting out land in rural China. Therefore, the government should adopt targeted policies to effectively encourage farmers with higher agricultural capacity to rent in land to alleviate the negative effect of rural migration on households renting in land. Supporting policies should guarantee that rural migrants enjoy the same welfare services as urban residents.
China & World Economy / 86–105, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
From Urban–Rural Division to Urban–Rural Integration: A Systematic Cost Explanation and Chengdu’s Experience
Qian Lu, Shurong Yao
Abstract
There is a considerable urban–rural divide in economic wellbeing in China. Since it was established as an urban–rural reform zone in 2007, Chengdu has seen significant reduction in the disparity in its urban and rural household incomes. From 2007 to 2010, Chengdu adopted urban–rural coordination policy by defining rural land property rights and establishing a rural land market. After 2010, Chengdu adopted an urban–rural integration strategy and allowed villager and business enterprises to participate in land consolidation. The transition from urban–rural division to urban–rural integration involves reducing systematic costs. The degree of urban–rural integration depends on the extent of the reduction in systematic costs.
China & World Economy / 106–126, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2018
Identifying the Turning Point of the Urban–Rural Relationship: Evidence from Macro Data
Liangliang Gao, Jiao Yan, Yue Du
Abstract
The urban and rural dual structure is a defining characteristic of the social and economic development process in China. With rapid urbanization, remarkable development of agriculture and rural modernization, the relationship between urban and rural areas is undergoing significant changes in China. Using macro data, we find that the relationship between urban and rural areas started to change in 2010. The transition has mainly been reflected in three dimensions: agriculture, rural areas and farmers. First, agricultural versatility has gradually increased, and the number of participants in leisure agriculture and rural tourism has grown rapidly since 2010. Second, the rural employment rate has risen gradually, and the share of rural employees in the tertiary sector has grown markedly. Third, the urban–rural income ratio and consumption ratio have begun to decrease, and the levels of consumption of domestic tourism by urban and rural residents are becoming small.
